Atlantic City’s casino-hotel economy could face a steep squeeze from online gaming growth and new casino competition in New York City and North Jersey, according to a new ACEA report. In its most severe scenario, the study says as many as 8,005 jobs and about $1.8 billion in regional output could be at risk by 2035 without a state strategy to protect South Jersey’s physical gaming and hospitality base.
ACEA describes the work as “The Greater Atlantic City Casino-Hotel Employment Exposure Assessment,” a first-of-its-kind regional economic study. The report says Atlantic City’s physical casino-hotel sector was already at a nine-year employment low, with direct employment falling to 21,172 jobs in April 2026, below the April 2021 pandemic trough of 21,484.
The report also frames 2025 as a turning point. Online gaming revenue reached $2.91 billion and, for the first time, surpassed Atlantic City’s $2.89 billion in bricks-and-mortar casino revenue. At the same time, New Jersey’s statewide gaming revenue hit a record $6.98 billion, while casino-related gaming taxes and fees topped $1.1 billion.
Using the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis RIMS II model, the report says five competitive pressures are converging on Atlantic City’s casino-hotel economy. It models four of them against the region’s 2025 bricks-and-mortar revenue base, and argues that online play brings high tax yield but comparatively few local jobs compared with a casino floor that relies on dealers, housekeepers, cooks, security staff and hotel workers.
Even in the report’s “Central” baseline, which assumes no North Jersey casino expansion, 5,105 Atlantic County jobs and $814.6 million in bricks-and-mortar casino revenue are still at risk by 2035. In the “Stress” case, which includes proposed casino-hotels at the Meadowlands and Monmouth Park, exposure rises to 8,005 jobs, $1.805 billion in regional output and 44.2% of the region’s 2025 casino-floor revenue base.
The report says the damage would not stop at casino employees. It extends the risk to indirect jobs and businesses such as linen and laundry services and food suppliers, and warns that pressure on the Casino Revenue Fund could affect property-tax relief, prescription assistance, transportation and long-term care programs relied on by residents in all 21 counties.
The study also points to a sharp regional imbalance. Atlantic County’s median household income is $76,819, ranking 19th of 21 counties, while Bergen and Monmouth, the kinds of places being discussed for new North Jersey casino investment, are both above $122,000. ACEA says almost seven in 10 casino-hotel workers live in five Atlantic County communities, which makes the local stakes especially concentrated.
The report argues that Atlantic City’s convention and meetings business is the strongest local absorption channel for displaced workers, but only partly so. The city has 1.83 million square feet of meeting space, and Visit Atlantic City booked 205 events in 2025 that drew 533,242 attendees, generated 328,067 room nights and produced $362.3 million in direct economic impact.
Dr. Max Slusher, who authored the report, called it “a planning document, not a doomsday prophecy.” The report’s bottom line is that competition should not necessarily be blocked, but managed before the physical economy, and the statewide Casino Revenue Fund it supports, breaks.
